New online poll predicts tighter presidential race in Brazil

FILE PHOTO – Electronic voting machines stand ready for use during the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections, at the headquarters of the Electoral Tribunal in Brasilia, Brazil August 22, 2022. REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino

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BRASILIA, Aug 25 (Reuters) – A new poll using data collected from the internet predicted a tighter presidential race in Brazil on Thursday, with left-wing favorite Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva taking just 8.4 percentage points ahead of far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula has 46.7% voter support to Bolsonaro’s 38.3% for the October election, online polling firm AtlasIntel said, which is a smaller lead than other major polls have shown. .

Datafolha have Lula ahead by 15 points, although their lead shrunk from 26 in December. IPEC, ex IBOPE, give Lula a 12-point lead.

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According to data from AtlasIntel, the gap gradually narrowed from 18 points in March to 10 points in July.

Former President Lula would win an expected second round with 51.8% of valid votes against 40.8% for his rival, according to the poll commissioned by the political risk consultancy Arko Advice.

“This election is still up for grabs,” said political scientist Lucas de Aragao, partner of Arko Advice.

“Polls show a tightening of the race and it could get tighter. The government’s increase in social benefits and other benefits is not yet impacting voters’ decisions; we could be heading for a very tight first round,” he said.

The survey of 7,475 voters was conducted with AtlasIntel’s Random Digital Recruitment tool, using ads to prompt people to complete secure questionnaires. The samples are then calibrated with demographic indicators, said the polling firm’s chief executive, Andrei Roman.

Web data collection was carried out between August 20 and 24. AtlasIntel says its poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

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Reporting by Anthony Boadle, editing by Rosalba O’Brien

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